NORMALLY, at this point of the week, you’d be watching a Super League match.
Instead, because it’s the Challenge Cup final on Saturday, you’re staring into a vast yawning chasm of having to talk to and look at your family until rugby league returns at the weekend. Or there’s always the NRL.
What we can do, however, is at least give you some rugby league to read about and with this effectively being the midway point of the regular season, what better time to take another the Betfred Super League’s Pythagorean wins?
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Not much movement in the egg Power Rankings this week 💪@LeighLeopardsRL leapfrog @Saints1890 whilst @GiantsRL climb above @DragonsOfficiel 📈#SuperLeague pic.twitter.com/pTgJQJMG5R
— Betfred Super League (@SuperLeague) June 2, 2025
As you may remember, rugbyleaguehub.com took a look at what the records of the competition’s 12 teams “should” have been four rounds into the regular season on the back of the launch of Super League’s own Egg Power Rankings.
While the explanation of the power rankings are compiled has a surface-level veneer of credibility but which can ultimately be summed up as “vibes”, Pythagorean expectation is backed up by good old-fashioned maths.
As always, we’ll be using the PythagenPat formula to calculate expected wins, so let’s dive into what the numbers say about who’s overachieving, who’s underachieving, and who’s where they’re expected to be if.
Out in front
It will come as no surprise to anyone that leaders Hull KR and reigning champions Wigan Warriors both have expected win records identical to their respective 12-1 and 11-2 records in real life.
The Robins head to Wembley top of the #SuperLeague table 📊 pic.twitter.com/zqCqKineDr
— Betfred Super League (@SuperLeague) June 1, 2025
Although the Robins have plenty of exciting attacking talent in their team, it is their defence which has played a significant role in putting them top of the pile after 13 rounds, conceding a league-lowest 116 points so far at a miserly average of just 8.92 conceded per game compared to nearly 30 scored.
By contrast, Wigan are the only team to have scored over 400 points so far this season and, on average, are out-scoring opponents 34-11.62 per game.
Perhaps most interesting, though, are Leeds Rhinos. Brad Arthur’s team sit third in the PythagenPat table with an expected 10-3 record, one win better than their real-life 9-4 record.
The Rhinos are only the fifth-highest scorers in Super League so far, but the Yorkshire outfit have the competition’s second-best defensive record along with Wigan of 151 points conceded.
That tracks with where Leeds were after four rounds when they were one win better off than their real-life 2-2 record, and at this point it is a stronger indication they’re a team to be taken seriously in 2025.
The curious case of St Helens
‘Flat-track bullies’ is a phrase which has been describe the current St Helens side on more than one occasion and a look at their results seems to bear that out.
Paul Wellens’ side have enjoyed some thumping wins over sides below them, but have failed to beat any of the current Super League top three or Betfred Challenge Cup finalists Warrington Wolves.
This might explain why, as opposed to their 7-6 real-life record which sees them sitting sixth, they’re equal to Leeds in our PythagenPat table with a 10-3 record.
Either that, or it’s a sign the 10-time Super League champions are a better side that the extreme results one way or the other suggest. We’ll let you make your own mind up on that one.
What is also notable is the fact St Helens are yet to play either Leigh Leopards or Hull FC, who sit level on 7-6 PythagenPat wins.
That seems somewhat appropriate given they played out a 22-22 draw at the start of March, while they both have a +11 points difference.
There has likely been some regression towards the mean in the case of Hull FC, too.
Although John Cartwright’s side made a strong start to the season in real life, a run of four straight losses in April and May brough their record closer to even, having been 1-3 under PythagenPat expected wins after four rounds.
More to come from Wakefield?
Promoted Wakefield Trinity are only outside the play-offs on points difference from St Helens in real life with seven wins and six losses, although their expected record is 9-4 which would put them comfortably in the top six.
Like Saints, they’ve mostly struggled against the sides above them in real life, but Daryl Powell’s team are otherwise outscoring opponents 24.85-16.15 on average and have the fourth-highest points for total in Super League.
Just below them are Powell’s former club Warrington, who are actually one win better off in real life than their expected 5-8 record, even with the injuries which have affected their squad.
Meanwhile, Castleford Tigers and Catalans Dragons are one win better off or one win worse off respectively than their expected 4-9 records.
Bottom of the pile
There’s no getting away from how difficult the 2025 Super League season has been for Huddersfield Giants and Salford Red Devils.
In the case of Paul Rowley’s side, the fact they have a win on the board is exceeding their expected 0-13 record.
Losing nearly all of their best players and having to rely on inexperienced academy graduates due to issues which are no fault of anyone on the playing side will do that to a team, so what’s Huddersfield’s excuse?
Sadly, they’re just not very good and are even slighlty underperforming in real life with just one win, having an expected 2-11 record at this point.
Where would that other win have come from? It’s not unreasonable to suggest it “should” have been in Round 5 against Salford, who actually won that meeting 23-10.